2012西太南海热带气旋实时分析by li
不定期更新。First Update:201203290220UTC
For TS 201201 PAKHAR
Upgrated from TD by RSMC JMA Tokyo Typhoon Center at 03290120UTC
Realtime Analysis:
INTEnsity Tropical Storm
AREA 南中国海南部
SCALe MEDium
LOCAtion 9.3N 112.5E POOR
MOVEment almost STationRy
estimated center PRESsure 1005hpa
estimated MaXimum WinD speed near the center 35kt
estimated maximum GUST 50kt
Range Of GAle 150km
Individual Forecast:
estimated PEAK intensity 45kt
estimated MiNimum PRessure 995hpa
estimated MOVEment West Slowly
Possible Area where would Land On 越南南部
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
高空辐散极佳,成功升格。风切变微弱。海温高。驶流微弱,近于停滞。
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http://21cma.org/xwb/images/bgimg/icon_logo.png 来自 sylarTX 的新浪微博 历史记载:201201号台风,于2012年3月28日晚上由于处女座将臣发功究极奥义“天舞菊长”而形成。
这种发功比蒙1/2概率的距平之类可更具备观赏性,有图有真相,27日节目预告群聊记录: Second Update:201203300110UTC
For TS 201201 PAKHAR
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TS
AREA 南中国海西南部
SCAL MED
LOCA 9.8N 111.5E FAIR
MOVE W Slowly
PRES 992hpa
MXWD 45kt
GUST 65kt
ROGA 150km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK 50kt
MNPR 985hpa
MOVE West Slowly
PALO 越南南部
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
高空辐散极好,风切变微弱,稳步增强,小幅爆发。副高西南侧缓慢西行,鞍形场明显。前方海温较低,继续增强幅度小。 Third Update:201203300925UTC
For TY 201201 PAKHAR
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TY
AREA 南中国海西南部
SCAL MED
LOCA 9.7N 111.0E FAIR
MOVE West Slowly
PRES 970hpa
MXWD 65kt
GUST 95kt
ROGA 200km
ROSW 60km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK Current
MNPR 970hpa
MOVE West Slowly
PALO 越南南部
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
310600UTC船舶实测报告8.8N 110.6E 8min风77.7kt,根据实测修正评价 Fourth Update:201203310040UTC
For TS 201201 PAKHAR
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TS
AREA 南中国海西南部
SCAL MED
LOCA 9.8N 110.2E FAIR
MOVE West Slowly
PRES 992hpa
MXWD 45kt
GUST 65kt
ROGA 200km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK Had passed
MNPR 970hpa
MOVE West Slowly
PALO 越南南部
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
海温低,冷涌即将抵达。昨日巅峰昙花一现,结构迅速变差,对流衰微 Fifth Update:201204011335UTC
For TS 201201 PAKHAR FINAL
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TS
AREA 越南胡志明市附近
SCAL MED
LOCA 10.9N 107.4E FAIR
MOVE NW
PRES 1000hpa
MXWD 45kt
GUST 65kt
ROGA150km
Individual Forecast:
N/A
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
04011200UTC胡志明市报告实测风速23m/s。多频微波扫描显示系统结构仍然较好 First Update:201206030800UTC
For TY 201203 Mawar
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TY
AREA 吕宋东北方洋面
SCAL MED
LOCA 19.4N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 8kt
PRES 960hpa
MXWD 75kt
GUST 105kt
ROGA 250km
ROST 100km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK 85kt
MNPR 950hpa
MOVE NNE to ENE
PALO -
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
副高偏东,短波小槽频繁,已处副高西北侧顺转中。纬度已较高,前方海温迅速降低。台风本身拉动季风大举转进,目前西南季风充沛,断尾后新系统有发展机会。风切变弱,但南高位置与形态使辐散无法达到最佳。预测在西风槽前可以达到巅峰,随后强度迅速减弱并转性
Remark:
实时分析的所指时刻,无注明一般指00,06,12,18UTC Second Update:201206041045UTC
For TY 201203 Mawar
Realtime Analysis(09UTC):
INTE TY
AREA 台湾以东洋面
SCAL MED
LOCA 23.0N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10kt
PRES 955hpa
MXWD 80kt
GUST 115kt
ROGA 350km
ROST 150km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK Had passed
MNPR 945hpa
MOVE NNE to ENE
PALO -
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
无特别补充。巅峰时刻认定为清晨到上午,00UTC评估巅峰强度为85kt,945hpa,ITY First Update:201206120935UTC
For TD 201204 GUCHOL
Upgrated from TD to TS by RSMC JMA Tokyo Typhoon Center at 06120705UTC
Realtime Analysis of 061209UTC:
INTE TD
AREA 菲律宾东方远洋
SCAL MED
LOCA 9.9N 142.7E POOR
MOVE W 8kt
PRES 1004hpa
MXWD 30kt
GUST 45kt
ROGA -
Individual Forecast:
PEAK 50kt
MNPR 980hpa
MOVE W to WNW
PALO -
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
位于远洋低纬,海温高,前方空间广阔,暂时风切变低。但远离水汽支援,系统孤立;前方将面临南高下沉支严重干扰;目前系统结构紊乱,仍待整合。副高为主要驶流,西西北逐渐趋向菲律宾以东洋面,后期将在季风槽和西风槽影响下转向并趋于消灭。 Second Update:201206131305UTC
For TS 201204 Guchol
Realtime Analysis:
INTE TS
AREA 菲律宾以东远洋
SCAL MED
LOCA 10.6N 137.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10kt
PRES 990hpa
MXWD 40kt
GUST 60kt
ROGA 150km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK 60kt
MNPR 975hpa
MOVE WNW
PALO -
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
微波扫描显示似乎系统存在一极细小的眼。如该结构维持,强度极可能迅速爆发性增强,从而改变初始场。目前数值分歧较大。暂时倾向于认可欧洲数值,系统发展前景仍不明朗。调高巅峰预期。 今晚CDO建立中,估计明晨红外会出极细风眼,到时T值会坐火箭,个人看好超台,路径方面,强度强的话,引导层面高,个人预估会登吕宋~! Third Update:201206140945UTC
For TY 201204 Guchol
Realtime Analysis of 061409UTC:
INTE TY
AREA 菲律宾以东远洋
SCAL MED
LOCA 10.9N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE W 12kt
PRES 975hpa
MXWD 65kt
GUST 95kt
ROGA 150km
ROST 50km
Individual Forecast:
PEAK 80kt
MNPR 950hpa
MOVE W to WN
PALO -
Reasoning by Simplified Chinese:
清晨微波扫描扫出一个极细小的眼,日间崩塌。JTWC升格TY后降格。目前无实测记录,根据早前表现定格系统为台风。系统仍待整合,所处区域海温高,风切微弱,前方环境有改善。因初始场变动,数值不稳定度高。系统核心区域小,环流大,不看好迅猛爆发。转西北后逐渐接近季风槽,转向路径确定。