末日太阳黑子预测?
NASA在6月5日最新黑子预测中,将24周期巅峰黑子数下调为60,这低于200年来最低值,如果最终没有超过60,将创下1749年人类黑子正规记录以来最低值(现第一低值记录:第5周期,1804年10月,62.3)。“Solar Cycle Prediction (Updated 2012/06/05)
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. ”
Cycle 24 Sunspot Number Prediction (June 2012)
Year Mon95% 50% 5%
1997 119.5 9.4 0.0
1997 221.810.9 0.0
1997 324.512.7 0.9
1997 427.414.7 2.1
1997 530.516.9 3.4
1997 633.919.4 4.9
1997 737.622.1 6.6
1997 841.424.9 8.4
1997 945.327.910.5
19971049.431.012.7
19971153.634.315.0
19971258.037.717.4
1998 162.341.220.0
1998 266.844.722.6
1998 371.248.325.4
1998 475.751.928.1
1998 580.155.530.9
1998 684.659.233.8
1998 788.962.836.6
1998 893.266.439.5
1998 997.569.942.3
199810 101.673.445.1
199811 105.776.847.8
199812 109.680.150.5
1999 1 113.483.353.2
1999 2 117.186.455.7
1999 3 120.689.458.2
1999 4 124.092.360.6
1999 5 127.295.062.8
1999 6 130.297.665.0
1999 7 133.1 100.167.1
1999 8 135.8 102.469.0
1999 9 138.3 104.670.8
199910 140.7 106.672.5
199911 142.8 108.574.1
199912 144.8 110.275.5
2000 1 146.6 111.776.8
2000 2 148.2 113.178.0
2000 3 149.6 114.379.0
2000 4 150.8 115.479.9
2000 5 151.9 116.380.7
2000 6 152.7 117.081.3
2000 7 153.4 117.681.8
2000 8 153.9 118.182.2
2000 9 154.2 118.382.4
200010 154.4 118.482.5
200011 154.3 118.482.5
200012 154.1 118.282.4
2001 1 153.8 117.982.1
2001 2 153.2 117.581.7
2001 3 152.5 116.981.2
2001 4 151.7 116.180.6
2001 5 150.7 115.379.9
2001 6 149.6 114.379.0
2001 7 148.3 113.278.1
2001 8 146.9 112.077.1
2001 9 145.4 110.776.0
200110 143.8 109.374.8
200111 142.0 107.873.5
200112 140.2 106.272.2
2002 1 138.2 104.570.7
2002 2 136.2 102.769.3
2002 3 134.0 100.967.7
2002 4 131.899.066.1
2002 5 129.597.064.5
2002 6 127.195.062.8
2002 7 124.792.961.1
2002 8 122.290.859.3
2002 9 119.788.657.5
200210 117.186.455.7
200211 114.584.253.9
200212 111.881.952.1
2003 1 109.179.750.2
2003 2 106.477.448.4
2003 3 103.775.146.5
2003 4 101.072.844.7
2003 598.270.542.8
2003 695.568.241.0
2003 792.866.039.2
2003 890.163.737.4
2003 987.361.535.6
20031084.759.333.8
20031182.057.132.1
20031279.354.930.4
2004 176.752.828.8
2004 274.250.727.2
2004 371.648.625.6
2004 469.146.624.1
2004 566.644.622.6
2004 664.242.721.1
2004 761.940.819.7
2004 859.538.918.3
2004 957.337.117.0
20041055.035.415.8
20041152.933.714.5
20041250.732.113.4
2005 148.730.512.3
2005 246.728.911.2
2005 344.727.410.2
2005 442.826.0 9.2
2005 541.024.6 8.2
2005 639.223.3 7.4
2005 737.522.0 6.5
2005 835.820.8 5.7
2005 934.219.6 5.0
20051032.718.5 4.3
20051131.217.4 3.6
20051229.716.4 3.0
2006 128.315.4 2.4
2006 227.014.4 1.9
2006 325.713.5 1.4
2006 424.412.7 0.9
2006 523.311.9 0.5
2006 622.111.1 0.1
2006 721.010.4 0.0
2006 820.0 9.7 0.0
2006 919.0 9.1 0.0
20061018.0 8.4 0.0
20061117.1 7.9 0.0
20061216.2 7.3 0.0
2007 115.4 6.8 0.0
2007 214.6 6.3 0.0
2007 313.8 5.9 0.0
2007 413.1 5.4 0.0
2007 512.4 5.0 0.0
2007 611.8 4.7 0.0
2007 711.2 4.3 0.0
2007 810.6 4.0 0.0
2007 910.0 3.7 0.0
200710 9.5 3.4 0.0
200711 8.9 3.1 0.0
200712 8.5 2.9 0.0
2008 1 8.0 2.6 0.0
2008 2 7.6 2.4 0.0
2008 3 7.2 2.2 0.0
2008 4 6.8 2.0 0.0
2008 5 6.4 1.9 0.0
2008 6 6.0 1.7 0.0
2008 7 5.7 1.6 0.0
2008 8 5.4 1.5 0.0
2008 9 5.3 1.4 0.0
200810 5.2 1.4 0.0
200811 5.3 1.4 0.0
200812 5.6 1.5 0.0
2009 1 6.1 1.8 0.0
2009 2 6.8 2.1 0.0
2009 3 7.7 2.5 0.0
2009 4 8.8 3.0 0.0
2009 510.0 3.7 0.0
2009 611.4 4.4 0.0
2009 712.9 5.3 0.0
2009 814.6 6.3 0.0
2009 916.4 7.4 0.0
20091018.3 8.6 0.0
20091120.3 9.9 0.0
20091222.311.3 0.2
2010 124.512.7 1.0
2010 226.714.3 1.8
2010 329.015.9 2.7
2010 431.317.5 3.7
2010 533.719.2 4.8
2010 636.121.0 5.9
2010 738.522.7 7.0
2010 840.924.5 8.2
2010 943.326.3 9.4
20101045.728.210.6
20101148.030.011.9
20101250.431.813.2
2011 152.733.514.4
2011 254.935.315.7
2011 357.137.017.0
2011 459.338.718.2
2011 561.440.419.4
2011 663.442.020.6
2011 765.343.621.8
2011 867.245.122.9
2011 969.046.524.0
20111070.747.925.1
20111172.449.226.1
20111273.950.527.0
2012 175.451.727.9
2012 276.752.828.8
2012 378.053.829.6
2012 479.254.830.4
2012 580.355.731.1
2012 681.356.531.7
2012 782.257.232.3
2012 883.057.932.8
2012 983.758.533.3
20121084.359.033.7
20121184.959.434.0
20121285.359.834.3
2013 185.660.134.5
2013 285.960.334.7
2013 386.160.434.8
2013 486.160.534.8
2013 586.160.434.8
2013 686.060.434.7
2013 785.860.234.6
2013 885.660.034.4
2013 985.259.734.2
20131084.859.433.9
20131184.359.033.6
20131283.758.533.2
2014 183.158.032.8
2014 282.457.432.4
2014 381.656.831.9
2014 480.856.131.4
2014 579.955.430.8
2014 679.054.630.2
2014 778.053.829.6
2014 876.952.928.9
2014 975.852.028.2
20141074.751.127.5
20141173.550.226.8
20141272.349.226.0
2015 171.148.225.3
2015 269.847.124.5
2015 368.546.123.7
2015 467.245.022.9
2015 565.843.922.1
2015 664.442.821.2
2015 763.041.720.4
2015 861.640.619.6
2015 960.239.518.7
20151058.838.417.9
20151157.437.217.1
20151255.936.116.3
2016 154.535.015.5
2016 253.133.914.7
2016 351.632.813.9
2016 450.231.613.1
2016 548.830.612.3
2016 647.429.511.6
2016 746.028.410.8
2016 844.627.410.1
2016 943.226.3 9.4
20161041.925.3 8.7
20161140.624.3 8.0
20161239.223.3 7.4
2017 137.922.3 6.7
2017 236.721.4 6.1
2017 335.420.5 5.6
2017 434.219.6 5.0
2017 533.018.7 4.4
2017 631.817.9 3.9
2017 730.717.0 3.4
2017 829.516.2 2.9
2017 928.415.5 2.5
20171027.414.7 2.1
20171126.314.0 1.6
20171225.313.3 1.3
2018 124.312.6 0.9
2018 223.411.9 0.5
2018 322.411.3 0.2
2018 421.510.7 0.0
2018 520.610.1 0.0
2018 619.8 9.6 0.0
2018 719.0 9.0 0.0
2018 818.2 8.5 0.0
2018 917.4 8.0 0.0
20181016.6 7.6 0.0
20181115.9 7.1 0.0
20181215.2 6.7 0.0
2019 114.6 6.3 0.0
2019 213.9 5.9 0.0
2019 313.3 5.5 0.0
2019 412.7 5.2 0.0
2019 512.1 4.9 0.0
2019 611.6 4.5 0.0
2019 711.1 4.3 0.0
2019 810.5 4.0 0.0
2019 910.1 3.7 0.0
201910 9.6 3.5 0.0
201911 9.1 3.2 0.0
201912 8.7 3.0 0.0
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