the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years

2011-7-3 19:54| 发布者: admin| 查看: 1445| 评论: 0|原作者: admin|来自: 世纪气象

摘要: NASA“the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years”已经持续N报，注意鉴别媒体信息，7月1日报告如下： The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 i ...

NASA“the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years”已经持续N报，注意鉴别媒体信息，7月1日报告如下：

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Three consecutive months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.

—— NASA  Updated 2011/07/01

Cycle 24 Sunspot Number Prediction (July 2011)
Year Mon  95% 50% 5%
1997 1  19.5 9.4 0.0
1997 2  21.8  10.9 0.0
1997 3  24.5  12.7 0.9
1997 4  27.4  14.7 2.1
1997 5  30.5  16.9 3.4
1997 6  33.9  19.4 4.9
1997 7  37.6  22.1 6.6
1997 8  41.4  24.9 8.4
1997 9  45.3  27.9  10.5
1997  10  49.4  31.0  12.7
1997  11  53.6  34.3  15.0
1997  12  58.0  37.7  17.4
1998 1  62.3  41.2  20.0
1998 2  66.8  44.7  22.6
1998 3  71.2  48.3  25.4
1998 4  75.7  51.9  28.1
1998 5  80.1  55.5  30.9
1998 6  84.6  59.2  33.8
1998 7  88.9  62.8  36.6
1998 8  93.2  66.4  39.5
1998 9  97.5  69.9  42.3
1998  10 101.6  73.4  45.1
1998  11 105.7  76.8  47.8
1998  12 109.6  80.1  50.5
1999 1 113.4  83.3  53.2
1999 2 117.1  86.4  55.7
1999 3 120.6  89.4  58.2
1999 4 124.0  92.3  60.6
1999 5 127.2  95.0  62.8
1999 6 130.2  97.6  65.0
1999 7 133.1 100.1  67.1
1999 8 135.8 102.4  69.0
1999 9 138.3 104.6  70.8
1999  10 140.7 106.6  72.5
1999  11 142.8 108.5  74.1
1999  12 144.8 110.2  75.5
2000 1 146.6 111.7  76.8
2000 2 148.2 113.1  78.0
2000 3 149.6 114.3  79.0
2000 4 150.8 115.4  79.9
2000 5 151.9 116.3  80.7
2000 6 152.7 117.0  81.3
2000 7 153.4 117.6  81.8
2000 8 153.9 118.1  82.2
2000 9 154.2 118.3  82.4
2000  10 154.4 118.4  82.5
2000  11 154.3 118.4  82.5
2000  12 154.1 118.2  82.4
2001 1 153.8 117.9  82.1
2001 2 153.2 117.5  81.7
2001 3 152.5 116.9  81.2
2001 4 151.7 116.1  80.6
2001 5 150.7 115.3  79.9
2001 6 149.6 114.3  79.0
2001 7 148.3 113.2  78.1
2001 8 146.9 112.0  77.1
2001 9 145.4 110.7  76.0
2001  10 143.8 109.3  74.8
2001  11 142.0 107.8  73.5
2001  12 140.2 106.2  72.2
2002 1 138.2 104.5  70.7
2002 2 136.2 102.7  69.3
2002 3 134.0 100.9  67.7
2002 4 131.8  99.0  66.1
2002 5 129.5  97.0  64.5
2002 6 127.1  95.0  62.8
2002 7 124.7  92.9  61.1
2002 8 122.2  90.8  59.3
2002 9 119.7  88.6  57.5
2002  10 117.1  86.4  55.7
2002  11 114.5  84.2  53.9
2002  12 111.8  81.9  52.1
2003 1 109.1  79.7  50.2
2003 2 106.4  77.4  48.4
2003 3 103.7  75.1  46.5
2003 4 101.0  72.8  44.7
2003 5  98.2  70.5  42.8
2003 6  95.5  68.2  41.0
2003 7  92.8  66.0  39.2
2003 8  90.1  63.7  37.4
2003 9  87.3  61.5  35.6
2003  10  84.7  59.3  33.8
2003  11  82.0  57.1  32.1
2003  12  79.3  54.9  30.4
2004 1  76.7  52.8  28.8
2004 2  74.2  50.7  27.2
2004 3  71.6  48.6  25.6
2004 4  69.1  46.6  24.1
2004 5  66.6  44.6  22.6
2004 6  64.2  42.7  21.1
2004 7  61.9  40.8  19.7
2004 8  59.5  38.9  18.3
2004 9  57.3  37.1  17.0
2004  10  55.0  35.4  15.8
2004  11  52.9  33.7  14.5
2004  12  50.7  32.1  13.4
2005 1  48.7  30.5  12.3
2005 2  46.7  28.9  11.2
2005 3  44.7  27.4  10.2
2005 4  42.8  26.0 9.2
2005 5  41.0  24.6 8.2
2005 6  39.2  23.3 7.4
2005 7  37.5  22.0 6.5
2005 8  35.8  20.8 5.7
2005 9  34.2  19.6 5.0
2005  10  32.7  18.5 4.3
2005  11  31.2  17.4 3.6
2005  12  29.7  16.4 3.0
2006 1  28.3  15.4 2.4
2006 2  27.0  14.4 1.9
2006 3  25.7  13.5 1.4
2006 4  24.4  12.7 0.9
2006 5  23.3  11.9 0.5
2006 6  22.1  11.1 0.1
2006 7  21.0  10.4 0.0
2006 8  20.0 9.7 0.0
2006 9  19.0 9.1 0.0
2006  10  18.0 8.4 0.0
2006  11  17.1 7.9 0.0
2006  12  16.2 7.3 0.0
2007 1  15.4 6.8 0.0
2007 2  14.6 6.3 0.0
2007 3  13.8 5.9 0.0
2007 4  13.1 5.4 0.0
2007 5  12.4 5.0 0.0
2007 6  11.8 4.7 0.0
2007 7  11.2 4.3 0.0
2007 8  10.6 4.0 0.0
2007 9  10.0 3.7 0.0
2007  10 9.5 3.4 0.0
2007  11 8.9 3.1 0.0
2007  12 8.5 2.9 0.0
2008 1 8.0 2.6 0.0
2008 2 7.6 2.4 0.0
2008 3 7.2 2.2 0.0
2008 4 6.8 2.0 0.0
2008 5 6.4 1.9 0.0
2008 6 6.0 1.7 0.0
2008 7 5.7 1.6 0.0
2008 8 5.4 1.4 0.0
2008 9 5.1 1.3 0.0
2008  10 4.8 1.2 0.0
2008  11 4.7 1.1 0.0
2008  12 4.6 1.1 0.0
2009 1 4.8 1.2 0.0
2009 2 5.2 1.3 0.0
2009 3 5.8 1.6 0.0
2009 4 6.6 2.0 0.0
2009 5 7.6 2.4 0.0
2009 6 8.8 3.1 0.0
2009 7  10.3 3.8 0.0
2009 8  11.8 4.7 0.0
2009 9  13.6 5.7 0.0
2009  10  15.5 6.9 0.0
2009  11  17.6 8.1 0.0
2009  12  19.7 9.5 0.0
2010 1  22.0  11.1 0.1
2010 2  24.4  12.7 0.9
2010 3  26.9  14.4 1.9
2010 4  29.5  16.2 2.9
2010 5  32.2  18.1 4.1
2010 6  34.8  20.1 5.3
2010 7  37.6  22.1 6.6
2010 8  40.3  24.1 7.9
2010 9  43.1  26.2 9.3
2010  10  45.9  28.3  10.8
2010  11  48.7  30.5  12.3
2010  12  51.5  32.6  13.8
2011 1  54.2  34.7  15.3
2011 2  56.9  36.9  16.8
2011 3  59.5  39.0  18.4
2011 4  62.1  41.0  19.9
2011 5  64.7  43.0  21.4
2011 6  67.2  45.0  22.9
2011 7  69.6  47.0  24.3
2011 8  71.9  48.8  25.8
2011 9  74.1  50.6  27.2
2011  10  76.3  52.4  28.5
2011  11  78.3  54.1  29.8
2011  12  80.3  55.7  31.0
2012 1  82.1  57.2  32.2
2012 2  83.9  58.6  33.3
2012 3  85.5  60.0  34.4
2012 4  87.1  61.2  35.4
2012 5  88.5  62.4  36.3
2012 6  89.8  63.5  37.2
2012 7  91.0  64.5  38.0
2012 8  92.1  65.4  38.7
2012 9  93.1  66.2  39.4
2012  10  93.9  66.9  39.9
2012  11  94.7  67.6  40.4
2012  12  95.3  68.1  40.9
2013 1  95.8  68.5  41.2
2013 2  96.3  68.9  41.5
2013 3  96.6  69.1  41.7
2013 4  96.8  69.3  41.8
2013 5  96.9  69.4  41.9
2013 6  96.8  69.4  41.9
2013 7  96.7  69.3  41.8
2013 8  96.5  69.1  41.7
2013 9  96.2  68.8  41.5
2013  10  95.8  68.5  41.2
2013  11  95.3  68.1  40.9
2013  12  94.7  67.6  40.5
2014 1  94.1  67.1  40.0
2014 2  93.3  66.4  39.5
2014 3  92.5  65.7  39.0
2014 4  91.6  65.0  38.4
2014 5  90.6  64.2  37.7
2014 6  89.6  63.3  37.1
2014 7  88.5  62.4  36.3
2014 8  87.3  61.4  35.6
2014 9  86.0  60.4  34.8
2014  10  84.8  59.3  33.9
2014  11  83.4  58.2  33.1
2014  12  82.0  57.1  32.2
2015 1  80.6  55.9  31.3
2015 2  79.1  54.7  30.3
2015 3  77.6  53.5  29.4
2015 4  76.1  52.3  28.4
2015 5  74.5  51.0  27.4
2015 6  73.0  49.7  26.4
2015 7  71.3  48.4  25.4
2015 8  69.7  47.1  24.4
2015 9  68.1  45.8  23.4
2015  10  66.4  44.4  22.4
2015  11  64.8  43.1  21.4
2015  12  63.1  41.8  20.4
2016 1  61.4  40.4  19.4
2016 2  59.7  39.1  18.5
2016 3  58.1  37.8  17.5
2016 4  56.4  36.5  16.6
2016 5  54.8  35.2  15.6
2016 6  53.1  33.9  14.7
2016 7  51.5  32.6  13.8
2016 8  49.9  31.4  12.9
2016 9  48.3  30.2  12.0
2016  10  46.7  29.0  11.2
2016  11  45.2  27.8  10.4
2016  12  43.6  26.6 9.6
2017 1  42.1  25.5 8.8
2017 2  40.7  24.4 8.1
2017 3  39.2  23.3 7.4
2017 4  37.8  22.2 6.7
2017 5  36.4  21.2 6.0
2017 6  35.0  20.2 5.4
2017 7  33.7  19.2 4.8
2017 8  32.4  18.3 4.2
2017 9  31.1  17.4 3.6
2017  10  29.9  16.5 3.1
2017  11  28.7  15.7 2.6
2017  12  27.5  14.8 2.1
2018 1  26.4  14.0 1.7
2018 2  25.3  13.3 1.3
2018 3  24.3  12.6 0.9
2018 4  23.2  11.9 0.5
2018 5  22.2  11.2 0.1
2018 6  21.3  10.5 0.0
2018 7  20.3 9.9 0.0
2018 8  19.4 9.3 0.0
2018 9  18.6 8.8 0.0
2018  10  17.7 8.2 0.0
2018  11  16.9 7.7 0.0
2018  12  16.1 7.2 0.0
2019 1  15.4 6.8 0.0
2019 2  14.7 6.4 0.0
2019 3  14.0 5.9 0.0
2019 4  13.3 5.5 0.0
2019 5  12.7 5.2 0.0
2019 6  12.1 4.8 0.0
2019 7  11.5 4.5 0.0
2019 8  10.9 4.2 0.0
2019 9  10.4 3.9 0.0
2019  10 9.9 3.6 0.0
2019  11 9.4 3.4 0.0
2019  12 8.9 3.1 0.0

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the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years

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