南海1309号热带风暴“飞燕”官方机构预报专帖

li0627 · 发表于 2013-7-30 15:34

原处在菲律宾东南方ITCZ中的热带扰动91W，已存在多日，7月26日一度被JMA定为TD，但随即减弱为低压区。28日，系统再度被定为TD，并穿越菲律宾群岛移入南中国海。29日凌晨02CST（18UTC），JMA对系统发出烈风警报（GW），正式定为TD a，表示24小时内该系统将发展为热带风暴。

在此开帖对此系统的官方机构预报进行转载。

JMA:

熱帯低気圧
平成25年07月30日16時00分発表
<30日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 14度30分(14.5度)
東経 118度05分(118.1度)
進行方向、速さ北西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<31日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 16度25分(16.4度)
東経 116度00分(116.0度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-7-31 08:57

北京升格

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 310000
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (14.9) 9887 9976
(115.8) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9931 9800 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(1309) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9707 9931 9800=
NNNN

li0627 · 发表于 2013-7-31 09:02

日本命名

台風　第9号発生
　 7月31日 9時現在
ミナミシナカイ
北緯14.7゜東経116.1゜　西 10 km/h
　中心気圧 1000 hPa
　最大風速 18 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 25 m/s
　強風半径(15m/s以上) 220 km

予報 1日 9時
　台風
　ミナミシナカイ
　北緯16.0゜東経114.0゜　西北西 10 km/h
　中心気圧 994 hPa
　最大風速 20 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 30 m/s
　予報円の半径 130 km

予報 2日 9時
　台風
　ミナミシナカイ
　北緯17.7゜東経111.6゜　北西 15 km/h
　中心気圧 992 hPa
　最大風速 23 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 35 m/s
　予報円の半径 200 km

予報 3日 9時
　台風
　トンキンワン
　北緯19.1゜東経108.3゜　西北西 15 km/h
　中心気圧 990 hPa
　最大風速 23 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 35 m/s
　予報円の半径 300 km

Murilo · 发表于 2013-7-31 09:02

WTPQ20 BABJ 302100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 08 INITIAL TIME 302100 UTC
00HR 14.8N 116.3E 1001HPA 15M/S
P12HR NNW 8KM/H
P+24HR 16.4N 115.4E 990HPA 23M/S=

li0627 · 发表于 2013-7-31 09:17

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 310000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS JEBI 1309 (1309) INITIAL TIME 310000 UTC
00HR 14.9N 115.8E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR NNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 16.8N 114.9E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 19.2N 112.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 21.1N 108.1E 990HPA 23M/S
P+96HR 21.5N 105.6E 1002HPA 16M/S=
NNNN

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-7-31 21:13

JMA:

台風第9号 (チェービー)
平成25年07月31日21時50分発表
<31日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 114度50分(114.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 220km(120NM)

<01日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 113度05分(113.1度)
進行方向、速さ北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 992hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 130km(70NM)

<02日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域海南島
予報円の中心北緯 19度20分(19.3度)
東経 109度35分(109.6度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 990hPa
中心付近の最大風速 23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域ベトナム
予報円の中心北緯 21度20分(21.3度)
東経 105度40分(105.7度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 992hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 300km(160NM)

<04日21時の予報>
存在地域華南
予報円の中心北緯 23度10分(23.2度)
東経 103度35分(103.6度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15km/h(7kt)
予報円の半径 440km(240NM)

<05日21時の予報>
存在地域長江中流域
予報円の中心北緯 25度00分(25.0度)
東経 101度55分(101.9度)
進行方向、速さ北西 10km/h(6kt)
予報円の半径 560km(300NM)

vicente1208 · 发表于 2013-8-1 00:20

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 114.8E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.8N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.5N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.6N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.2N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.5N 101.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 114.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427 NM SOUTHWARD
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427 NM SOUTHWARD
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, BUT
CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311239Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING SPANNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AS THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LLCC
IS BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST OF
TAIWAN. TD 09W IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND TRACKS ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE EXTENSION OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSING OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THIS AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE
WILL CAUSE TD 09W TO ACCELERATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND,
MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 48. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND FAVORABLE SSTS REMAIN CONSTANT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TD 09W TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THIS ROUGH TERRAIN WILL
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT OF THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS.//
NNNN

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-1 20:28

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS JEBI 1309 (1309) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC
00HR 16.7N 113.2E 992HPA 23M/S
30KTS 260KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 19.5N 110.2E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 105.5E 1000HPA 16M/S=
NNNN

vicente1208 · 发表于 2013-8-1 23:48

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 113.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.0N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.3N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.3N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.3N 99.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 112.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND
021500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE PERIPHERY. THE
MOST RECENT EIR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING AS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION IS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING. A 011227Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE MONSOON DEPRESSION
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, FRAGMENTED BANDING IS ALSO
IDENTIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS HIDDEN UNDER THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM FIXING AGENCIES RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND STRONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF
TAIWAN. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD OVER
CHINA PRODUCING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER TRACK
SPEEDS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKERS, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER
HAINAN ISLAND. FRICTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER HAINAN WILL
CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
PRIOR TO TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM
PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INCREASED
FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH RUGGED TERRAIN.//
NNNN

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-2 09:07

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS JEBI 1309 (1309) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC
00HR 17.3N 112.5E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS 260KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 20.7N 108.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 102.9E 1004HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

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[官方预报] 南海1309号热带风暴“飞燕”官方机构预报专帖

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