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BOM最新报告：发生厄尔尼诺可能性增大
CURRENT STATUS as at 21st May 2009
Next update expected by 3rd June 2009 (two weeks after this update)
Summary: Tropical Pacific warms as El Niño risk increases.
Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.
All international climate models predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with most forecasting sea surface temperatures to remain in the neutral range until at least mid-winter. Half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009. However, the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum, so model outputs should be used with caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), has become increasingly positive over the last month. It is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a sustained trend, but late autumn and winter is the typical development period for an IOD event. This will also be monitored closely. About IOD.
In Brief
* Sea surface temperature (SST) continues to warm across the equatorial Pacific. Weak warm anomalies are now present across both the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
* The equatorial sub-surface has also continued to warm, with warmer than normal sub-surface water extending across most of the tropical Pacific.
* The SOI has fallen sharply. The latest 30-day SOI value is −7. The monthly value for April was +9.
* Trade winds are weaker than average across the central equatorial Pacific.
* Cloudiness near the date-line was generally near-normal at the start of May, but has decreased slightly recently.
* All international climate modes predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean SST, with half of the models forecasting the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009.
简述翻译：
整个赤道太平洋表层水温继续变暖，中东部热带太平洋水温目前为弱的正距平。
赤道太平洋次表层水温亦继续变暖，大部分热带海区均较常年同期暖。
SOI指数迅速下滑。30天平均值为-7，4月平均值为+9。
赤道中太平洋信风较常年偏弱。
日变线附近云量在5月初依旧接近常年，但最近略有下降。
国际上所有气候模型预测太平洋表层水温将继续变暖，半数模型预报2009年后期厄尔尼诺将发展。 |
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IP卡
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-4-25 10:21
显身卡
楼主
发表于 2009-5-3 12:11
发表于 2009-5-11 13:22
