关注2009年厄尔尼诺：圣婴重生的风季

liuxinmin

我的意思是说,西太海温下降,中东太的暖水在东南信风的作用下回流(赤道中东太的东南信风近日加强了),上层海水回流,则下层冷海水必再次上翻,使得发展中的厄尔尼诺停下来,在秋冬季向拉尼娜发展

将臣

我的意思是说,西太海温下降,中东太的暖水在东南信风的作用下回流(赤道中东太的东南信风近日加强了),上层海水回流,则下层冷海水必再次上翻,使得发展中的厄尔尼诺停下来,在秋冬季向拉尼娜发展
liuxinmin 发表于 2009-7-25 19:03

下层还未有冷水，如41楼那种监测图，就是次表层监测。这得等这次厄尔尼诺巅峰后，才会出现。

中东太纬向风，依然是正距

liuxinmin

厄尔尼诺像是到顶了,中太纬向风是负距,东太东南风在加强,随是正距,但未创新高,且下滑,次表层暖水也象已到顶见图



C:\Documents and Settings\wangmanying\My Documents\My Pictures

liuxinmin

图如下：

dnt02

Summary: Mixed El Niño indicators as development slows
The El Niño pattern across the Pacific has not intensified during the past fortnight. Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this.
However, the Trade Winds are weakening over a broad area and this may promote renewed warming. In addition, leading climate models continue to predict further development of the El Niño, although not as emphatically as a month or two back. Therefore, the odds remain strongly in favour of 2009 being recognised as an El Niño year.
July and August have seen below average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, with particularly dry conditions through Queensland and northern NSW. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.
In addition, conditions have recently been very warm for the time of year across Australia, with maximum temperatures consistently more than 4°C above normal over wide areas.
The most recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is near zero. The Bureau's POAMA model suggests the DMI should remain neutral over the coming months.

總結:ENSO指標現分歧,聖嬰現象發展遲緩

phoonfan

注意德雷克海峡的海冰最近一个月来明显较常年偏多，这一现象已导致当前秘鲁寒流的增强（如图）

将臣

非典型就在这里，暖化综合症下的圣婴，症状：副高肥大，极地高血压。

诊断结果：双峰厄尔尼诺

将臣

CFS数值开始对双峰厄尔尼诺有反应，不过次表层已经很明显了

气象一点通

来自:中国天气网

今年我国为何如此炎热？“今年我国的高温热浪和厄尔尼诺的形成不无关系。”中国气象局国家气候中心高级工程师张培群表示。

张培群分析，今天夏季，我国的许多地方都破了高温历史极值，已经达到极端监测标准，可以算是极端天气事件。而今年我国的高温热浪和“厄尔尼诺”的形成也不是不无关系。

“厄尔尼诺”是海洋大气相互作用的状态，反映的是海洋大气总体的异常状况（比常年气温偏暖0.5℃，海水出现显著增温），它的影响相当复杂。从今年6月开始，赤道中东太平洋海洋大气就进入了厄尔尼诺状态，且目前正处于发展阶段，专家预计将发展成为一次厄尔尼诺事件。因此，在厄尔尼诺背景下可能也是我国高温原因之一。

厄尔尼诺事件是一个海洋大气大尺度运动过程，形成后会持续一段时间。一般来说，一次厄尔尼诺事件如果是在夏季前后发生的，会持续9-16个月左右。根据强度不一样，持续的时间也不一样。强度较弱的可能就持续6-9个月，强的将持续一年以上。

根据最近的海洋、大气监测和模式预测结果，预计厄尔尼诺对我国的影响将维持到今年冬季或明年春季，受厄尔尼诺影响，我国秋冬季的降水、气温等天气因素都会受到影响。也就是说，厄尔尼诺如果在明年年初就结束的话，就不是一次强厄尔尼诺事件，这也是2000年以来厄尔尼诺的一个特点。2000年以来，厄尔尼诺并不强，像是2002和2006年的两次，都只是持续2-3个季度。厄尔尼诺的预报很复杂，未来走势还需密切监测。

dnt02

Summary: Mixed El Niño indicators, but Pacific continues to warm
Temperatures have risen across the equatorial Pacific during the past fortnight, in response to generally weakened Trade Winds. However, the warming has been strongest in the west of the basin which has resulted in anomalous warmth across the entire breadth of the Pacific. The typical El Niño pattern sees warmth concentrated in the central or eastern Pacific with cooler than normal temperatures in the western Pacific.
Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI (−5) and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this.
Leading climate models continue to predict further development of the El Niño (i.e. warming of the Pacific), although not as emphatically as a month or two back. Therefore, the odds remain strongly in favour of 2009 being recognised as an El Niño year.
El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. In keeping with this, rainfall has been below average across much of eastern Australia during July and August, with particularly dry conditions through Queensland and parts of NSW.
Conditions have recently been very warm for the time of year across Australia, with the national mean August temperature being the highest since records began in 1950. For more information about the exceptional winter heat over large parts of Australia see the Special Climate Statement issued on the 26th of August.
The most recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), are near zero. The Bureau's POAMA model suggests the DMI should remain neutral over the coming months.

澳洲氣象局：SOI 8月讀數-5 但聖嬰現象形成指標仍不確定
鉅亨網黃欣 綜合報導
澳洲氣象局今 (2) 日指出，可能導致澳洲乾旱和使亞洲
雨季雨水不足的異常氣候聖嬰現象 (El Nino) 仍不確定
是否已形成。

澳洲氣象局表示，在典型嬰聖現象下，東太平洋海水溫
度高於西太平洋，形成大範圍海水溫度異常上升。而目
前整個太平洋海水普遍溫暖。

不過澳洲氣象局也說，2009 年很可能仍是聖嬰現象年，
近來亞洲雨季雨量不足的現象支撐了此論點。

「局內觀察的氣候模型持續預期太平洋將因聖嬰現象進
一步暖化，但已不若 1-2 個月前明顯。」澳洲氣象局於
兩周一次的觀察報告中表示。

在 7-8 月，澳洲東岸降雨量低於平均值，此情形已經引
發可能導致小麥作物歉收的憂慮，發展中的聖嬰氣候更
加深市場疑慮。