2010/11年冬天平流層監察帖

雪中红

14# dnt02
啊，突然想起以前看过的一些基础理论，原来Major SSW是指平流层极涡完成崩溃，风场逆转的最后过程，并且是按平均纬向风。。

这样2008年的Major SSW就变成在2月下旬那次才是Major，而我们现在探讨的重点，是发生Major之前的增温振荡对对流层环流的影响，对于这个话题来说，Major几乎毫无意义{:soso_e127:}

iceperple

Could anyone translate this?__From JMA

2. Stratospheric Warming
The Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is a phenomenon characterized by a rapid increase in polar temperatures in the stratosphere. The temperature increases more than a few dozen degrees in a few days in the boreal winter. In some cases the westerly polar night jet disappears and easterly winds appear during the warming. JMA is monitoring SSWs as one of the Regional Warming Centers. The warming is called a "Minor Warming", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degrees in a period of a week or less at any stratospheric level. If the zonal-mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degrees latitude and the net zonal-mean zonal winds become easterly at 60 degrees latitude at 10-hPa (32 km) or below, it is classified as a "Major Warming". The SSW was discovered in 1952 by Scherhag (1952), but it took some time before the mechanism was theoretically identified by Matsuno (1971). The SSW is caused by a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward from the troposphere. Planetary waves deposit westward momentum and create a strong meridional circulation which produces a large warming in the polar stratosphere due to adiabatic heating (e.g., McIntyre 1982).


4. E-P Flux Analysis
As mentioned above, the stratospheric and the tropospheric circulation are connected with each other through wave mean-flow interactions. The Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux (Eliassen and Palm, 1961) is widely used to characterize the wave activity. The direction of the E-P flux is proportional to the group velocity and indicates the direction of the propagation of the waves. Approximately, the vertical and horizontal components of the E-P flux are proportional to the eddy heat and momentum flux, respectively. The divergence of E-P flux is proportional to the northward flux of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity, so that it is a direct measure of the total forcing of the zonal-mean flow by eddies. Therefore, the E-P flux and its divergence are important and useful to diagnose planetary waves propagation as well as the effective mean zonal force induced by the waves. Some figures on this web page display E-P fluxes under different forms, such as meridional cross-sections and time series, for monitoring the stratospheric circulation.

0407

22# iceperple
在搜尋帖子中找出了下帖有翻譯部份內容~希望幫到你
http://www.21cma.net/thread-6042-1-3.html

雪中红

当绕极波动一周之后：

lmk915

24# 雪中红


最新预测好像越来越牛了

0407

暴了...

iceperple

各种继续求解释啊……

4# iceperple
E-P通量的创造非常有意义，至少使许多动热运算直观化，我记得D管发过一帖，忘记叫什么了。

至于2波，好像是理想中纬度强迫源导致1波流向极地波导到平流层，2波对流层中低层流向赤道而上传平流层的 ...
雪中红 发表于 2011-1-14 01:56

嗯，D管的帖子我没找到……囧rz。

另外看了一下现在的形势。
按照老将的解释，然后查了点东西，好象是说E-P和扰动波群速正相关。
那么22日70N附近的大通量是否可以对应上WAVE1在20~30N附近高值区，而21~23日20~30N之间的大通量可否对应上WAVE2在40~60N对流层中下层的高值区？

另外还有个问题，如果说WAVE2是对流层中低层扰动能量向低纬传递的代表的话，那么首先影响的应该是中低纬平流层吧，这和高纬极涡系统之间又构成怎么样的联系？是怎么联系的呢？

雪中红

27# iceperple
呵呵，我也不大懂，因为出社会太久了，不过肯定不是你画的这样“错位对应”，通量就是能量单位面积流量的意思。

大一就有高等物理，或许那时顺便探索一下，物理专业的会员也请知识范围内帮下忙。

另外：
1、我记得波2能量输送是较弱的，而波1是对应气旋的
2、现行极地SSW统计区域，以65N或60N的划分标准，有很大问题，只适用于极涡崩溃时段。许多统计方法，都需要先看下实况，要不会得出相反的结论，然后再套用到其他理论，结果就变成谬论了。

比如现在：

雪中红

31日平流层顶遥感出现极端现象，CPC至今未更新2月份遥感图片